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Margin of Safety Calculator: How a 100 Price, 5 EPS and 12% Growth Yield 162.50 Graham, 75.00 P/E and 280.00 DCF, Averaging 172.50 for a 42.0% Buy Signal

Enter a 100 price, 5 EPS, 12% growth, a 15 target P/E and a 14% discount rate: the calculator returns 162.50 from Graham, 75.00 from the P/E multiple and 280.00 from DCF, averaging 172.50 for a 42.0% margin of safety and a Buy signal, all in your browser.

Margin of safety is the gap between what a share costs and what it is worth, expressed as a percentage of intrinsic value. The Margin of Safety Calculator builds three independent estimates of intrinsic value from one price, an earnings per share figure, a growth rate, a target P/E and a discount rate, averages them, and measures how far the current price sits below that average. A gap of at least 33 percent means Buy; between 0 and 33 percent it is Hold; below zero it is Avoid.

The three intrinsic value estimates

The first estimate follows Graham: EPS times 8.5 plus twice the growth rate. With 5 EPS and 12 percent growth that is 5 x (8.5 + 24) = 162.50. The second is a pure multiple: EPS times the target P/E, here 5 x 15 = 75.00. The third discounts five years of growing EPS and adds a terminal value. A P/E & PEG Ratio Calculator shows the same P/E input from the multiple side, which helps when you want to test whether a target of 15 is aggressive for the sector.

What the PEG lens adds

PEG divides the P/E by the growth rate. The target multiple of 15 at 12 percent growth gives 15 / 12 = 1.25, at the upper edge of the band most investors treat as fair. The PEG ratio guide shows how the 1.0 line is derived and where 1.25 sits for a company growing at that pace.

Why the DCF branch needs a guard

The DCF branch runs only when the discount rate beats the growth rate; otherwise a growing perpetuity has no finite present value. Here 14 percent exceeds 12 percent, so five years of EPS discounted at 14 percent plus the terminal value total 280.00. With the defaults, 10 percent growth against a 10 percent discount rate, the guard fails and the tool falls back to EPS x target P/E x 1.2, landing at 90.00 with a note. Discounting is compounding run backwards, and the Compound Interest Calculator is a quick way to check whether 14 percent feels right as a hurdle.

How the 42.0 percent verdict is built

The three estimates average to (162.50 + 75.00 + 280.00) / 3 = 172.50. The margin of safety is (172.50 - 100) / 172.50 = 42.0 percent, which clears the 33 percent line and returns Buy. The same intrinsic value at a 120 price gives 30.4 percent and Hold, at 150 it gives 13.0 percent and Hold, and at 180 it gives -4.3 percent and Avoid: the value never moves, only the price does. A P/E P/B Valuation tool cross-checks the 100 price against book value and shows whether the P/E side of the average is already rich.

The 33 percent line and a growth sanity check

The threshold bar marks the 33 percent Buy line, and the bar width grows at three times the margin, so 42.0 percent nearly fills it. The growth input drives two of the three estimates, which makes 12 percent the load-bearing number: at 12 percent a base value doubles in about 72 / 12 = 6 years. The rule of 72 guide covers the arithmetic and the limits of the rule, and the limits matter because the Graham estimate grows linearly with the input and overshoots if 12 percent is an outlier year.

Where this fits in a valuation pipeline

In a full pipeline the margin of safety comes last. You size the company with the market cap guide, you confirm the growth rate with the CAGR Calculator, and only then does the margin decide whether the current price is worth buying. The default case on the tool, a 150 price with 5 EPS, 10 percent growth, 15 P/E and a 10 percent discount rate, lands at an average of 102.50 and a margin of -46.3 percent: Avoid, which is exactly the point, a fair price is not a cheap price.

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Frequently Asked Questions

How is the margin of safety percentage calculated?

The tool averages three intrinsic value estimates, Graham, the P/E multiple and DCF, then takes (average minus price) divided by average. In the canonical case the average is 172.50 and the price is 100, so the margin is 42.0 percent, which clears the 33 percent Buy line.

What do the Buy, Hold and Avoid thresholds mean?

A margin of 33 percent or more is Buy, because the price sits at least a third below the averaged intrinsic value; between 0 and 33 percent it is Hold, the price is below value but the gap is thin; below zero the price is above value and the verdict is Avoid.

Why does the DCF estimate fall back to a formula in the default case?

The DCF branch needs the discount rate strictly above the growth rate to keep the growing perpetuity finite. The defaults use 10 percent growth and 10 percent discount, the guard fails, and the tool substitutes EPS x target P/E x 1.2, which is 90.00 here, with a visible note. Raising the discount rate to 12 percent or 14 percent switches the branch back on.

Does the risk free rate input change the result?

No. The three intrinsic value formulas use the EPS, the growth rate, the target P/E and the discount rate only; the risk free rate is recorded for the report but does not enter the calculation. The discount rate is the single rate that drives the DCF branch, so that is the input to tune.

How does the price input move the verdict without touching the intrinsic value?

The three estimates ignore the price, so only the final division changes. With the averaged intrinsic value at 172.50, a 100 price gives 42.0 percent and Buy, 120 gives 30.4 percent and Hold, 150 gives 13.0 percent and Hold, and 180 gives -4.3 percent and Avoid.

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