Trading Expectancy Calculator
Calculate the expected value per trade and overall edge of your strategy.
What is this tool?
The Trading Expectancy Calculator evaluates whether a trading strategy has a mathematical edge. Input your win rate, average win amount, average loss amount, and number of trades to calculate expectancy per trade, total expected return over 100 trades, profit factor, and whether the strategy is profitable in the long run.
How to use
- 1
Enter win rate
Input your strategy's win rate as a percentage (e.g., 40% means 40 wins out of 100 trades).
- 2
Enter win/loss amounts
Input the average profit per winning trade and average loss per losing trade.
- 3
View expectancy analysis
See expectancy per trade, total expected return over 100 trades, profit factor, and strategy evaluation.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is trading expectancy?
Expectancy = (Win Rate ร Average Win) - (Loss Rate ร Average Loss). It tells you the average profit or loss per trade. A positive expectancy means the strategy is profitable over many trades.
Can a low win rate still be profitable?
Yesโif your average win is large enough compared to your average loss. For example, a 30% win rate with a 1:3 risk/reward ratio gives positive expectancy: (0.30 ร 3) - (0.70 ร 1) = 0.20 per trade.
How many trades do I need for expectancy to materialize?
The law of large numbers requires sufficient sample size. Generally 50-100 trades minimum to see expectancy materialize. More volatile strategies need even more trades for statistical significance.